How Do We Analyze the Accident Causation of Shield Construction of Water Conveyance Tunnels? A Method Based on the N-K Model and Complex Network

Yong Zhang, Qi Zhang (), Xiang Zhang, Meng Li and Guoqing Qi
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Yong Zhang: School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China
Qi Zhang: School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China
Xiang Zhang: School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China
Meng Li: School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China
Guoqing Qi: Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project Construction Co., Ltd., Xi’an 710100, China

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 20, 1-30

Abstract: In the construction of water conveyance tunnels with the shield method, accidents have occurred from time to time, such as collapses and explosions, and it is of practical significance to explore the cause mechanism of the accident. However, previous research has not considered the effects of dependence between risks on the risk spread. In response, we propose a method based on the Natural Killing Model (the N-K Model) and complex network theory to analyze the cause of shield construction accidents in water conveyance tunnels. By deeply exploring the transmission mechanism and action intensity between system risks, this method can scientifically clarify the accident cause mechanism and provide support for engineering construction safety management. The method constructs a risk index system. Secondly, we introduce the N-K model to reveal the risk coupling mechanism. Then, based on complex network theory, we construct the incident causation model and revise the node’s centrality with the coupling value. Finally, the network topology parameters are calculated to quantitatively describe the causal characteristics of accidents, revealing the risk evolution process and critical causes. The research results indicate that the key causes of accidents are failure to construct according to regulations, inadequate emergency measures, poor ability of judgment and decision-making, and insufficient understanding of abnormal situations. The front end of critical links is subject to human or management risks and should be carefully controlled during construction.

Keywords: safety engineering; causation analysis; water conveyance tunnel; risk coupling; complex network; N-K model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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