The COVID-19 Mortality Rate in Latin America: A Cross-Country Analysis

Fernando José Monteiro de Araújo (), Renata Rojas Guerra and Fernando Arturo Peña-Ramírez
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Fernando José Monteiro de Araújo: Graduate Program of Statistics, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre 90010-150, Brazil
Renata Rojas Guerra: Graduate Program of Statistics, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre 90010-150, Brazil
Fernando Arturo Peña-Ramírez: Departament of Statistics, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria 97105-900, Brazil

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 24, 1-17

Abstract: Latin America was one of the hotspots of COVID-19 during the pandemic. Therefore, understanding the COVID-19 mortality rate in Latin America is crucial, as it can help identify at-risk populations and evaluate the quality of healthcare. In an effort to find a more flexible and suitable model, this work formulates a new quantile regression model based on the unit ratio-Weibull (URW) distribution, aiming to identify the factors that explain the COVID-19 mortality rate in Latin America. We define a systematic structure for the two parameters of the distribution: one represents a quantile of the distribution, while the other is a shape parameter. Additionally, some mathematical properties of the new regression model are presented. Point and interval estimates of maximum likelihood in finite samples are evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations. Diagnostic analysis and model selection are also discussed. Finally, an empirical application is presented to understand and quantify the effects of economic, social, demographic, public health, and climatic variables on the COVID-19 mortality rate quantiles in Latin America. The utility of the proposed model is illustrated by comparing it with other widely explored quantile models in the literature, such as Kumaraswamy and unit Weibull regressions.

Keywords: epidemiology; quantiles; unit extended Weibull families; unit regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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