Predictability of Magnetic Field Reversals

Daniil Tolmachev, Roman Chertovskih (), Simon Ranjith Jeyabalan and Vladislav Zheligovsky
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Daniil Tolmachev: Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., 84/32 Profsoyuznaya St., 117997 Moscow, Russia
Roman Chertovskih: Research Center for Systems and Technologies (SYSTEC), Advanced Production and Intelligent Systems Associated Laboratory (ARISE), Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
Simon Ranjith Jeyabalan: Research Center for Systems and Technologies (SYSTEC), Advanced Production and Intelligent Systems Associated Laboratory (ARISE), Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
Vladislav Zheligovsky: Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., 84/32 Profsoyuznaya St., 117997 Moscow, Russia

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 3, 1-20

Abstract: Geomagnetic field measurements indicate that at present we may be on the brink of the Earth’s magnetic field reversal, potentially resulting in all the accompanying negative consequences for the mankind. Mathematical modelling is necessary in order to find precursors for reversals and excursions of the magnetic field. With this purpose in mind, following the Podvigina scenario for the emergence of the reversals, we have studied convective flows not far (in the parameter space) from their onset and the onset of magnetic field generation, and found a flow demonstrating reversals of polarity of some harmonics comprising the magnetic field. We discuss a simulated regime featuring patterns of behaviour that apparently indicate future reversals of certain harmonics of the magnetic field. It remains to be seen whether reversal precursors similar to the observed ones exist and might be applicable for the much more complex geomagnetic dynamo.

Keywords: thermal convection; rotating fluid; convective dynamo; nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic regimes; magnetic reversals; convective rolls; Küppers–Lortz instability; precursor of magnetic reversal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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