Impact of Demographic Developments and PCV13 Vaccination on the Future Burden of Pneumococcal Diseases in Germany—An Integrated Probabilistic Differential Equation Approach

Myka Harun Sarajan (), Kahkashan Mahreen, Patrizio Vanella and Alexander Kuhlmann
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Myka Harun Sarajan: Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biometry and Informatics (IMEBI), Interdisciplinary Centre for Health Sciences, Medical Faculty of the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Saale), Germany
Kahkashan Mahreen: Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biometry and Informatics (IMEBI), Interdisciplinary Centre for Health Sciences, Medical Faculty of the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Saale), Germany
Patrizio Vanella: Demography Cluster, Department of Health Monitoring & Biometrics, aQua Institute, Maschmühlenweg 8-10, 37073 Göttingen, Germany
Alexander Kuhlmann: Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biometry and Informatics (IMEBI), Interdisciplinary Centre for Health Sciences, Medical Faculty of the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Saale), Germany

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 6, 1-21

Abstract: Streptococcus pneumonia is the primary cause of morbidity and mortality in infants and children globally. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence is affected by various risk factors such as age and comorbidities. Additionally, this bacterium is a major cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), leading to higher rates of hospitalization, especially among older adults. Vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has proven effective, but the demographic transition in Germany poses a challenge. This study introduces a novel stochastic approach by integrating a population forecast model into a transmission dynamic model to investigate the future burden of pneumococcal diseases in three age groups (0–4, 5–59, and 60 and older). Our simulations, presented through mean predictions and 75% prediction intervals, indicate that implementing PCV13 (13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine) until the year 2050 results in reduced cases of IPD and CAP in all age groups compared to scenarios without infant vaccination. However, cases with non-vaccine serotypes may persist at higher levels compared to scenarios without infant vaccination. Consequently, there may be a need for improvement in the current national vaccine policy, such as implementing the use of higher-valent PCVs and strengthening adult vaccination uptake.

Keywords: pneumococcal disease burden; stochastic forecasting; PCV13 pneumococcal vaccination; stochastics; cohort component method; principal component analysis; autoregressive integrated moving average models; Monte Carlo simulation; demography; epidemiology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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