Fuzzy-Based Road Accident Risk Assessment

Péter Mogyorósi, Sándor Szénási () and Edit Laufer
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Péter Mogyorósi: Doctoral School of Applied Informatics and Applied Mathematics, Óbuda University, H-1034 Budapest, Hungary
Sándor Szénási: John von Neumann Faculty of Informatics, Óbuda University, H-1034 Budapest, Hungary
Edit Laufer: Bánki Donát Faculty of Mechanical and Safety Engineering, Óbuda University, H-1034 Budapest, Hungary

Mathematics, 2024, vol. 12, issue 8, 1-18

Abstract: It is necessary to extensively investigate the causes of road accidents with the utmost precision to harness future technological advancements, such as autonomous driving and intelligent accident prevention systems. Nevertheless, since most accidents are attributed to simple human errors, unraveling the complex root-cause factors poses a considerable challenge. This is where fuzzy logic can offer a potential solution: it is essential to understand even seemingly straightforward errors, such as speeding, to identify external factors that could play a pivotal role in future accident prevention. A more in-depth examination and comprehension of elements like road curvature, slope, and their correlation with accidents are necessary. Additionally, it is crucial to explore how the frequency of accidents on specific road segments varies under diverse weather conditions. This article analyzes which curves can be considered more dangerous and the factors that render them risky. The fuzzy model presented in this article is primarily capable of estimating the risk of a given road segment based on its curvature characteristics. The model results presented in the article indicate that sections of the road can become more risky due to multiple curves and curves with a radius of less than 80 m. The model assesses risk based on the physical characteristics of road segments, primarily the curvature radius, while, typically, other road risk assessment models rely on traffic volume and accident counts.

Keywords: road accidents; fuzzy; traffic risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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