Multi-Subject Decision-Making Analysis in the Public Opinion of Emergencies: From an Evolutionary Game Perspective

Chen Guo and Yinghua Song ()
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Chen Guo: School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Yinghua Song: School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-26

Abstract: This study employs evolutionary game theory to analyze the tripartite interaction among government regulators, media publishers, and self-media participants in emergency public opinion management. We establish an evolutionary game model incorporating strategic motivations and key influencing factors; then, we validate the model through systematic simulations. Key findings demonstrate the following: ① the system exhibits dual stable equilibria: regulated equilibrium and autonomous equilibrium. ② Sensitivity analysis identifies critical dynamics: ① self-media behavior is primarily driven by penalty avoidance ( g 3 ) and losses ( w 2 ); ② media participation hinges on revenue incentives ( m 2 ) versus regulatory burdens ( k ); ③ government intervention efficacy diminishes on emergencies when resistance ( v 1 + v 3 ) exceeds control benefits. The study reveals that effective governance requires the following: ① adaptive parameter tuning of punishment–reward mechanisms; ② dynamic coordination between information control and market incentives. This framework advances emergency management by quantifying how micro-level interactions shape macro-level opinion evolution, providing actionable insights for balancing stability and information freedom in digital governance.

Keywords: multi-subject decision-making; public opinion of emergencies; evolutionary game (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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