Dynamic Dual-Phase Forecasting Model for New Product Demand Using Machine Learning and Statistical Control

Chien-Chih Wang ()
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Chien-Chih Wang: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Ming Chi University of Technology, New Taipei City 24303, Taiwan

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-23

Abstract: Forecasting demand for newly introduced products presents substantial challenges within high-mix, low-volume manufacturing contexts, primarily due to cold-start conditions and unpredictable order behavior. This research proposes the Dynamic Dual-Phase Forecasting Framework (DDPFF) that amalgamates machine learning-based classification, similarity-driven analogous forecasting, ARMA-based residual compensation, and statistical process control for adaptive model refinement. The framework underwent evaluation through five real-world case studies conducted by a Taiwanese semiconductor tray manufacturer, encompassing a variety of scenarios characterized by high volatility, seasonality, and structural drift. The results indicate that DDPFF consistently outperformed conventional ARIMA and analogous forecasting methodologies, yielding an average reduction of 35.7% in mean absolute error and a 41.8% enhancement in residual stability across all examined cases. In one representative instance, the forecast error decreased by 44.9% compared to established benchmarks. These findings underscore the framework’s resilience in cold-start situations and its capacity to adapt to evolving demand patterns, providing a viable solution for data-scarce and dynamic manufacturing environments.

Keywords: new product demand forecasting; cold-start problem; XGBoost classification; residual compensation; high-mix low-volume manufacturing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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