Parameter Estimation and Forecasting Strategies for Cholera Dynamics: Insights from the 1991–1997 Peruvian Epidemic

Hamed Karami, Gerardo Chowell, Oscar J. Mujica and Alexandra Smirnova ()
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Hamed Karami: Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA
Gerardo Chowell: Department of Population Health Sciences, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA
Oscar J. Mujica: Department of Evidence and Intelligence for Action in Health, Pan American Health Organization, Washington, DC 20037, USA
Alexandra Smirnova: Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-28

Abstract: Environmental transmission is a critical driver of cholera dynamics and a key factor influencing model-based inference and forecasting. This study focuses on stable parameter estimation and forecasting of cholera outbreaks using a compartmental SIRB model informed by three formulations of the environmental transmission rate: (1) a pre-parameterized periodic function, (2) a temperature-driven function, and (3) a flexible, data-driven time-dependent function. We apply these methods to the 1991–1997 cholera epidemic in Peru, estimating key parameters; these include the case reporting rate and human-to-human transmission rate. We assess practical identifiability via parametric bootstrapping and compare the performance of each transmission formulation in fitting epidemic data and forecasting short-term incidence. Our results demonstrate that while the data-driven approach achieves superior in-sample fit, the temperature-dependent model offers better forecasting performance due to its ability to incorporate seasonal trends. The study highlights trade-offs between model flexibility and parameter identifiability and provides a framework for evaluating cholera transmission models under data limitations. These insights can inform public health strategies for outbreak preparedness and response.

Keywords: infectious diseases; parameter estimation; cholera transmission; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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