Effective Control Strategies for Sex-Structured Transmission Dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis

Temesgen Debas Awoke (), Semu Mitiku Kassa, Kgomotso Susan Morupisi and Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu
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Temesgen Debas Awoke: Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Boseja Ward, Plot 10071, Private Bag 0016, Palapye, Botswana
Semu Mitiku Kassa: Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Boseja Ward, Plot 10071, Private Bag 0016, Palapye, Botswana
Kgomotso Susan Morupisi: Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Boseja Ward, Plot 10071, Private Bag 0016, Palapye, Botswana
Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu: Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Boseja Ward, Plot 10071, Private Bag 0016, Palapye, Botswana

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-31

Abstract: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a chronic disease caused by Leishmania infantum, is more prevalent in males than females. Control strategies that do not take this disparity into account can be suboptimal. We extended a sex-structured VL model by introducing four control variables: insecticide-treated bed nets, vector control, medical treatment, and animal culling. The study evaluates six intervention strategies and calculates the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to assess their impact on disease transmission and cost-effectiveness. The analysis shows that, without interventions, the disease remains endemic with significant health and socioeconomic consequences. The proposed strategy, which applies all four controls, emerges as the most effective and cost-efficient strategy, leading to an exponential reduction in disease prevalence across human, vector, and animal populations. Strategies without animal culling and vector control followed in effectiveness. Moreover, it was found that applying up to 50% of the controls to females, compared to males, can still eliminate VL within the planning period.

Keywords: sex-structured VL model; vector-borne disease; optimal control; disease control strategies; cost-effectiveness analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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