Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Italian Mortality

Girolamo Franchetti, Carmela Iorio () and Massimiliano Politano
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Girolamo Franchetti: Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Naples “Federico II”, 80126 Naples, Italy
Carmela Iorio: Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Naples “Federico II”, 80126 Naples, Italy
Massimiliano Politano: Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Naples “Federico II”, 80126 Naples, Italy

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 15, 1-12

Abstract: This study presents a methodology for evaluating the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates in Italy. The primary objectives are to define criteria for identifying a ‘rise in mortality’, establish a robust evaluation approach, and assess pandemic repercussions using the proposed framework. To conduct a comparative analysis of mortality estimates, two classical models were employed: the Lee–Carter and the Renshaw–Haberman models. The analysis involved utilising actuarial tables and mortality models to quantify pandemic-induced excess deaths by calculating the disparity between these estimates. The proposed method aims to provide a comprehensive and clear understanding of the impact of the pandemic on mortality in Italy.

Keywords: actuarial tables; COVID-19; excess mortality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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