A Dynamic Risk Control Methodology for Mission-Critical Systems Under Dependent Fault Processes

Zijian Kang, Yuhan Ma, Bin Wang and Kaiye Gao ()
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Zijian Kang: School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Yuhan Ma: School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Bin Wang: School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Kaiye Gao: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 16, 1-21

Abstract: Industrial systems operating under severe mission environment are frequently confronted with intricate failure behaviors arising from system internal degradation and extrinsic stresses, posing an elevating challenge to system survivability and mission reliability. Mission termination strategies are attracting increasing attention as an intuitive and effective means to mitigating catastrophic mission-induced risk. However, how to manage coupled risk arising from competing fault processes, particularly when these modes are interdependent, has been rarely reported in existing works. To bridge this gap, this study delves into a dynamic risk control policy for continuously degrading systems operating under a random shock environment, which yields competing and dependent fault processes. An optimal mission termination policy is developed to minimize risk-centered losses throughout the mission execution, whose optimization problem constitutes a finite-time Markov decision process. Some critical structural properties associated with the optimal policy are derived, and by leveraging these structures, the alerting threshold for implementing mission termination procedure is formally established. Alternative risk control policies are introduced for comparison, and experimental evaluations substantiate the superior model capacity in risk mitigation.

Keywords: risk control; dependent fault process; mission reliability; survivability analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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