A Hybrid Model of Multi-Head Attention Enhanced BiLSTM, ARIMA, and XGBoost for Stock Price Forecasting Based on Wavelet Denoising

Qingliang Zhao, Hongding Li, Xiao Liu and Yiduo Wang ()
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Qingliang Zhao: College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Hongding Li: College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Xiao Liu: College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Yiduo Wang: School of Mathematics and Physics, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 16, 1-21

Abstract: The stock market plays a crucial role in the financial system, with its price movements reflecting macroeconomic trends. Due to the influence of multifaceted factors such as policy shifts and corporate performance, stock prices exhibit nonlinearity, high noise, and non-stationarity, making them difficult to model accurately using a single approach. To enhance forecasting accuracy, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates wavelet denoising, multi-head attention-based BiLSTM, ARIMA, and XGBoost. Wavelet transform is first employed to enhance data quality. The multi-head attention BiLSTM captures nonlinear temporal dependencies, ARIMA models linear trends in residuals, and XGBoost improves the recognition of complex patterns. The final prediction is obtained by combining the outputs of all models through an inverse-error weighted ensemble strategy. Using the CSI 300 Index as an empirical case, we construct a multidimensional feature set including both market and technical indicators. Experimental results show that the proposed model clearly outperforms individual models in terms of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R 2 . Ablation studies confirm the importance of each module in performance enhancement. The model also performs well on individual stock data (e.g., Fuyao Glass), demonstrating promising generalization ability. This research provides an effective solution for improving stock price forecasting accuracy and offers valuable insights for investment decision-making and market regulation.

Keywords: stock price forecasting; wavelet denoising; bidirectional long short-term memory; autoregressive integrated moving average; extreme gradient boosting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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