Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction Model Based on Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network for Fusing External Features and Internal Attributes

Xinke Du, Jinfei Cao (), Xiyuan Jiang, Jianyu Duan, Zhen Tian and Xiong Wang
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Xinke Du: School of Business, Shanghai Normal University Tianhua College, Shanghai 201815, China
Jinfei Cao: School of Digital Economy and Management, Suzhou City University, Suzhou 215104, China
Xiyuan Jiang: School of marketing, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6011, New Zealand
Jianyu Duan: School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100080, China
Zhen Tian: James Watt School of Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
Xiong Wang: Celanese (China) Holding Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210019, China

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 17, 1-31

Abstract: Enterprise bankruptcy prediction is a critical task in financial risk management. Traditional methods, such as logistic regression and decision trees, rely heavily on structured financial data, which limits their ability to capture complex relational networks and unstructured industry information. Heterogeneous graph neural networks (HGNNs) offer a solution by modeling multiple relationships between enterprises. However, current models struggle with financial risk graph data challenges, such as the oversimplification of internal financial features and the lack of dynamic imputation for missing external topological features. To address these issues, we propose HGNN-EBP, an enterprise bankruptcy prediction algorithm that integrates both internal and external features. The model constructs a multi-relational heterogeneous graph that combines structured financial data, unstructured textual information, and real-time industry data. A multi-scale graph convolution network captures diverse relationships, while a Transformer-based self-attention mechanism dynamically imputes missing external topological features. Finally, a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) predicts bankruptcy probability. Experimental results on a dataset of 32,459 Chinese enterprises demonstrate that HGNN-EBP outperforms traditional models, especially in handling relational diversity, missing features, and dynamic financial risk data.

Keywords: enterprise bankruptcy prediction; heterogeneous graph neural network; Transformer attention mechanism; graph convolutional network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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