Prediction of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in China Using Novel CSLDDBO-Optimized PGM(1, N ) Model

Lele Cui, Gang Hu () and Abdelazim G. Hussien
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Lele Cui: Department of Applied Mathematics, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710054, China
Gang Hu: Department of Applied Mathematics, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710054, China
Abdelazim G. Hussien: Department of Computer and Information Science, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 17, 1-37

Abstract: Sulfur dioxide not only affects the ecological environment and endangers health but also restricts economic development. The reasonable prediction of sulfur dioxide emissions is beneficial for formulating more comprehensive energy use strategies and guiding social policies. To this end, this article uses a multiparameter combination optimization gray prediction model (PGM(1, N )), which not only defines the difference between the sequences represented by variables but also optimizes the order of all variables. To this end, this article proposes an improved algorithm for the Dung Beetle Optimization (DBO) algorithm, namely, CSLDDBO, to optimize two important parameters in the model, namely, the smoothing generation coefficient and the order of the gray generation operators. In order to overcome the shortcomings of DBO, four improvement strategies have been introduced. Firstly, the use of a chain foraging strategy is introduced to guide the ball-rolling beetle to update its position. Secondly, the rolling foraging strategy is adopted to fully conduct adaptive searches in the search space. Then, learning strategies are adopted to improve the global search capabilities. Finally, based on the idea of differential evolution, the convergence speed of the algorithm was improved, and the ability to escape from local optima was enhanced. The superiority of CSLDDBO was verified on the CEC2022 test set. Finally, the optimized PGM(1, N ) model was used to predict China’s sulfur dioxide emissions. From the results, it can be seen that the error of the PGM(1, N ) model is the smallest at 0.1117%, and the prediction accuracy is significantly higher than that of other prediction models.

Keywords: prediction model; dung beetle algorithm; China’s sulfur dioxide emissions; multiparameter combination optimization; comprehensive average relative percentage error (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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