Enhancing Road Freight Price Forecasting Using Gradient Boosting Ensemble Supervised Machine Learning Algorithm

Artur Budzyński () and Maria Cieśla ()
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Artur Budzyński: Department of Packaging and Logistics Processes, Institute of Quality Science and Product Management, Krakow University of Economics, 27 Rakowicka St., 31-510 Krakow, Poland
Maria Cieśla: Department of Transport Systems, Traffic Engineering and Logistics, Faculty of Transport and Aviation Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, 8 Krasińskiego St., 40-019 Katowice, Poland

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 18, 1-24

Abstract: For effective logistics planning and pricing strategies, it is essential to predict road freight transportation costs accurately. Using a real-world dataset with 45,569 freight offers and 52 different variables, including financial, logistical, geographical, and temporal characteristics, this study presents a data-driven method for forecasting transport prices. To create a strong predictive model, the approach combines hyperparameter optimization, evolutionary feature selection, and extensive feature engineering. Because gradient boosting works well for modelling intricate, nonlinear relationships, it was used as the main algorithm. Temporal dependencies were maintained through a nested cross-validation framework with a time-series split, which improved the generalizability of the model. With a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.27%, the model showed excellent predictive accuracy. Key predictive factors included total transport distance, load and delivery quantities, temperature constraints, and aggregated categorical features such as route and vehicle type. The results confirm that evolutionary algorithms are capable of efficiently optimizing model parameters, as well as feature subsets, greatly enhancing interpretability and performance. In the freight logistics industry, this method offers useful insights for operational and dynamic pricing decision-making. This model may be expanded in future research to include external data sources and investigate its suitability for use in various geographic locations and modes of transportation.

Keywords: data preprocessing; evolutionary algorithms; feature engineering; freight transportation rate; gradient boosting; machine learning; predictive modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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