State-DynAttn: A Hybrid State-Space and Dynamic Graph Attention Architecture for Robust Air Traffic Flow Prediction Under Weather Disruptions

Fei Yan () and Huawei Wang
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Fei Yan: College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Chengdu 618307, China
Huawei Wang: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 20, 1-28

Abstract: We propose State-DynAttn, a hybrid architecture for robust air traffic flow prediction under weather disruptions, which integrates state-space models (SSMs) with dynamic graph attention to address the challenges of long-range dependency modeling and adaptive spatial–temporal relationship learning. The increasing complexity of air traffic systems, exacerbated by unpredictable weather events, demands methods that can simultaneously capture global temporal patterns and localized disruptions; existing approaches often struggle to balance these requirements efficiently. The proposed method employs two parallel branches: an SSM branch for continuous-time recurrent modeling of long-range dependencies with linear complexity, and a dynamic graph attention branch that adaptively computes node-pair weights while incorporating weather severity features through sparsification strategies for scalability. These branches are fused via a data-dependent gating mechanism, enabling the model to dynamically prioritize either global temporal dynamics or localized spatial interactions based on input conditions. Moreover, the architecture leverages memory-efficient attention computation and HiPPO initialization to ensure stable training and inference. Experiments on real-world air traffic datasets demonstrate that State-DynAttn outperforms existing baselines in prediction accuracy and robustness, particularly under severe weather scenarios. The framework’s ability to handle both gradual traffic evolution and abrupt disruption-induced changes makes it suitable for real-world deployment in air traffic management systems. Furthermore, the design principles of State-DynAttn can be extended to other spatiotemporal prediction tasks where long-range dependencies and dynamic relational structures coexist. This work contributes a principled approach to hybridizing state-space models with graph-based attention, offering insights into the trade-offs between computational efficiency and modeling flexibility in complex dynamical systems.

Keywords: air traffic flow prediction; state-space models (SSMs); dynamic graph attention; weather disruptions; hybrid architecture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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