Prospective Inference of Central Tendency Through Data-Adaptive Mechanisms

Huda M. Alshanbari and Malik Muhammad Anas ()
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Huda M. Alshanbari: Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia
Malik Muhammad Anas: Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisciano, Salerno, Italy

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 22, 1-25

Abstract: In the modern age of data enrichment, it has become necessary to incorporate adaptive inference processes into survey-based estimation systems in order to achieve efficient and consistent population summaries. In this work, a new type of data-adaptive approach to the prospective estimation of central tendency under stratified random sampling (StRS) frameworks is presented. The suggested structure takes advantage of the auxiliary information based on locally tuned, non-parametric smoothing plans that dynamically adapt to a heterogeneity of sampled and unsampled domains. The estimator wisely reacts to an intricate pattern of the data, ensured by the application of variable bandwidth functions, stratified weighting plans, which ensure resilience to model misspecification and outlier effects. Substantial Monte Carlo simulations and two empirical studies, i.e., solar radiation data and fish market data, are performed to confirm its performance in a variety of bandwidth and sample size settings. The findings have consistently shown that the suggested adaptive inference mechanism is significantly more precise and stable than traditional estimators, not only when auxiliary expectations are known, but also when they have to be estimated. This study brings into play a flexible, design-conscious framework that connects model-driven estimation with design-driven survey inference, which is of importance in contemporary information-gathering settings of informational diversity and enrichment.

Keywords: data-adaptive inference; central tendency estimation; stratified random sampling; auxiliary information; non-parametric framework; survey data enrichment; design-based statistical inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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