Analysis and Control of Rumor Propagation Model Considering Multiple Waiting Phases

Hai Wu, Xin Yan (), Shengxiang Gao, Zhongying Deng and Haiyang Chi
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Hai Wu: Faculty of Information Engineering and Automation, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Xin Yan: Faculty of Information Engineering and Automation, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Shengxiang Gao: Faculty of Information Engineering and Automation, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Zhongying Deng: Faculty of Information Engineering and Automation, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China
Haiyang Chi: Information Center, Kunming University, Kunming 650214, China

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-23

Abstract: Rumors pose serious harm to society and exhibit a certain degree of repetitiveness. Existing rumor propagation models often have simple rules and neglect the repetitiveness of rumors. Therefore, we propose a new SCWIR rumor propagation model (susceptible, commented, waited, infected, recovered) by introducing the user’s repeated waiting behavior to simulate the potential for rumors to lie dormant and spread opportunistically. First, we present the dynamic equations of the model, then introduce three influencing factors to improve the model. Next, by solving for the equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number, we discuss the local and global stability of the rumor-free/rumor equilibrium points. Finally, we perform numerical simulations to analyze the effects of different factors on rumor propagation. The results show that the introduction of the multiple waiting mechanism helps simulate the repetitiveness of rumor propagation. Among the rumor suppression strategies, the effectiveness, from highest to lowest, is as follows: government intervention, information dissemination and popularization, and accelerated rumor value decay, with government intervention playing a decisive role. Information dissemination can reduce the intensity of rumors at the source.

Keywords: rumor propagation; multiple waiting phases; basic regeneration number; rumor suppression; complex network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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