Macro-Scale Temporal Attenuation for Electoral Forecasting: A Retrospective Study on Recent Elections

Alexandru Topîrceanu ()
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Alexandru Topîrceanu: Department of Computer and Information Technology, Politehnica University Timişoara, 300006 Timişoara, Romania

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-29

Abstract: Forecasting election outcomes is a complex scientific challenge with notable societal implications. Existing approaches often combine statistical analysis, machine learning, and economic indicators. However, research in network science has emphasized the importance of temporal factors in the dissemination of opinions. This study presents a macro-scale temporal attenuation (TA) model, which integrates micro-scale opinion dynamics and temporal epidemic theories to enhance forecasting accuracy using pre-election poll data. The findings suggest that the timing of opinion polls significantly influences opinion fluctuations, particularly as election dates approach. Opinion “pulse” is modeled as a temporal function that increases with new poll inputs and declines during stable periods. Two practical variants of the TA model, ETA and PTA, were tested on datasets from ten elections held between 2020 and 2024 around the world. The results indicate that the TA model outperformed several statistical methods, ARIMA models, and best pollster predictions (BPPs) in six out of ten elections. The two TA implementations achieved an average forecasting error of 6.92–6.95 percentage points across all datasets, compared to 7.65 points for BPP and 14.42 points for other statistical methods, demonstrating a performance improvement of 10–83%. Additionally, the TA methods maintained robust performance even with limited poll availability. As global pre-election survey data become more accessible, the TA model is expected to serve as a valuable complement to advanced election-forecasting techniques.

Keywords: computational intelligence; opinion polls; electoral forecasting; temporal attenuation; presidential elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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