Global Cross-Market Trading Optimization Using Iterative Combined Algorithm: A Multi-Asset Approach with Stocks and Cryptocurrencies

Kansuda Pankwaen, Sukrit Thongkairat and Worrawat Saijai ()
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Kansuda Pankwaen: Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Sukrit Thongkairat: Independent Researcher, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Worrawat Saijai: Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 8, 1-27

Abstract: This study presents an advanced adaptive trading framework that integrates Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) with the Iterative Model Combining Algorithm (IMCA) to overcome the critical limitations of static ensemble methods in global portfolio optimization. Using a diverse cross-market dataset of 39 stocks from the US, Australia, Europe, Thailand, and one cryptocurrency (BTC-USD), the research rigorously evaluates models’ adaptability under volatile market conditions. Volatile market conditions—such as COVID-19, SVB crisis, and the 2022 crypto crash—are captured via volatility metrics (e.g., drawdown), with DRL models like PPO/TD3 adapting through dynamic reward signals. This cross-asset integration is particularly critical, as it captures the complex dynamics and correlations between traditional financial markets and emerging digital assets. Although DRL models like PPO and TD3 outperform traditional strategies, they remain vulnerable to market drawdowns and high volatility. IMCA significantly surpasses these models, achieving the highest cumulative return of 29.52% and a superior Sharpe ratio of 0.829 by dynamically recalibrating model weights in response to real-time market dynamics. This study addresses a substantial research gap, highlighting the failure of traditional ensemble models—reliant on static weightings—to adapt to evolving financial conditions, resulting in suboptimal risk-adjusted returns. IMCA offers a dynamic, data-driven approach that continuously optimizes portfolio strategies across fluctuating market regimes, demonstrating its scalability and robustness across diverse asset classes and regional markets, and providing an empirical framework for adaptive portfolio management. Policy recommendations underscore the need for financial institutions to adopt AI-driven adaptive models like IMCA to enhance portfolio resilience, profitability, and responsiveness in uncertain markets.

Keywords: deep reinforcement learning; portfolio optimization; IMCA; cross market; bitcoin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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