The San Francisco MSM Epidemic: A Retrospective Analysis

Brandy L. Rapatski and Juan Tolosa
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Brandy L. Rapatski: Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Stockton University, 101 Vera King Farris Drive, Galloway, NJ 08205-9441, USA
Juan Tolosa: Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Stockton University, 101 Vera King Farris Drive, Galloway, NJ 08205-9441, USA

Mathematics, 2015, vol. 3, issue 4, 1-12

Abstract: We investigate various scenarios for ending the San Francisco MSM (men having sex with men) HIV/AIDS epidemic (1978–1984). We use our previously developed model and explore changes due to prevention strategies such as testing, treatment and reduction of the number of contacts. Here we consider a “what-if” scenario, by comparing different treatment strategies, to determine which factor has the greatest impact on reducing the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The factor determining the future of the epidemic is the reproduction number R 0 ; if R 0 < 1, the epidemic is stopped. We show that treatment significantly reduces the total number of infected people. We also investigate the effect a reduction in the number of contacts after seven years, when the HIV/AIDS threat became known, would have had in the population. Both reduction of contacts and treatment alone, however, would not have been enough to bring R 0 below one; but when combined, we show that the effective R 0 becomes less than one, and therefore the epidemic would have been eradicated.

Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); mathematical model; reproduction number; endemic equilibrium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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