Deep Assessment Methodology Using Fractional Calculus on Mathematical Modeling and Prediction of Gross Domestic Product per Capita of Countries

Ertuğrul Karaçuha, Vasil Tabatadze, Kamil Karaçuha, Nisa Özge Önal and Esra Ergün
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Ertuğrul Karaçuha: Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, 34467 Istanbul, Turkey
Vasil Tabatadze: Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, 34467 Istanbul, Turkey
Kamil Karaçuha: Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, 34467 Istanbul, Turkey
Nisa Özge Önal: Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, 34467 Istanbul, Turkey
Esra Ergün: Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, 34467 Istanbul, Turkey

Mathematics, 2020, vol. 8, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: In this study, a new approach for time series modeling and prediction, “deep assessment methodology,” is proposed and the performance is reported on modeling and prediction for upcoming years of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The proposed methodology expresses a function with the finite summation of its previous values and derivatives combining fractional calculus and the Least Square Method to find unknown coefficients. The dataset of GDP per capita used in this study includes nine countries (Brazil, China, India, Italy, Japan, the UK, the USA, Spain and Turkey) and the European Union. The modeling performance of the proposed model is compared with the Polynomial model and the Fractional model and prediction performance is compared to a special type of neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), that used for time series. Results show that using Deep Assessment Methodology yields promising modeling and prediction results for GDP per capita. The proposed method is outperforming Polynomial model and Fractional model by 1.538% and by 1.899% average error rates, respectively. We also show that Deep Assessment Method (DAM) is superior to plain LSTM on prediction for upcoming GDP per capita values by 1.21% average error.

Keywords: deep assessment; fractional calculus; least squares; modeling; GDP per capita; prediction; LSTM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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