Bonferroni Probabilistic Ordered Weighted Averaging Operators Applied to Agricultural Commodities’ Price Analysis

Luis F. Espinoza-Audelo, Maricruz Olazabal-Lugo, Fabio Blanco-Mesa, Ernesto León-Castro and Victor Alfaro-Garcia
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Luis F. Espinoza-Audelo: Universidad Autónoma de Occidente, Unidad Regional Culiacán, Culiacán 80200, Mexico
Maricruz Olazabal-Lugo: Universidad Autónoma de Occidente, Unidad Regional Culiacán, Culiacán 80200, Mexico
Fabio Blanco-Mesa: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Escuela de Administración de Empresas, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Tunja 150003, Colombia
Ernesto León-Castro: Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Av. Alonso de Ribera 2850, Concepción 4030000, Chile
Victor Alfaro-Garcia: Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Gral. Francisco J. Múgica S/N, C.U., Morelia 58030, Mexico

Mathematics, 2020, vol. 8, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: Financial markets have been characterized in recent years by their uncertainty and volatility. The price of assets is always changing so that the decisions made by consumers, producers, and governments about different products is not still accurate. In this situation, it is necessary to generate models that allow the incorporation of the knowledge and expectations of the markets and thus include in the results obtained not only the historical information, but also the present and future information. The present article introduces a new extension of the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator called the Bonferroni probabilistic ordered weighted average (B-POWA) operator. This operator is designed to unify in a single formulation the interrelation of the values given in a data set by the Bonferroni means and a weighted and probabilistic vector that models the attitudinal character, expectations, and knowledge of the decision-maker of a problem. The paper also studies the main characteristics and some families of the B-POWA operator. An illustrative example is also proposed to analyze the mathematical process of the operator. Finally, an application to corn price estimation designed to calculate the error between the price of an agricultural commodity using the B-POWA operator and a leading global market company is presented. The results show that the proposed operator exhibits a better general performance than the traditional methods.

Keywords: price forecasting; OWA operator; corn price; Bonferroni means; probabilistic operators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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