Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of Non-Pharmacological Strategies to Control the COVID-19 Epidemic in Portugal

Constantino Caetano, Maria Luísa Morgado, Paula Patrício, João F. Pereira and Baltazar Nunes
Additional contact information
Constantino Caetano: Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, 1649-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Maria Luísa Morgado: Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics, Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Paula Patrício: Center for Mathematics and Applications (CMA), FCT NOVA and Department of Mathematics, FCT NOVA, Quinta da Torre, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal
João F. Pereira: Department of Mathematics, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
Baltazar Nunes: Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, 1649-016 Lisbon, Portugal

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 10, 1-16

Abstract: In this paper, we present an age-structured SEIR model that uses contact patterns to reflect the physical distance measures implemented in Portugal to control the COVID-19 pandemic. By using these matrices and proper estimates for the parameters in the model, we were able to ascertain the impact of mitigation strategies employed in the past. Results show that the March 2020 lockdown had an impact on disease transmission, bringing the effective reproduction number ( R ( t ) ) below 1. We estimate that there was an increase in the transmission after the initial lift of the measures on 6 May 2020 that resulted in a second wave that was curbed by the October and November measures. December 2020 saw an increase in the transmission reaching an R ( t ) = 1.45 in early January 2021. Simulations indicate that the lockdown imposed on the 15 January 2021 might reduce the intensive care unit (ICU) demand to below 200 cases in early April if it lasts at least 2 months. As it stands, the model was capable of projecting the number of individuals in each infection phase for each age group and moment in time.

Keywords: epidemiological models; SEIR type compartmental model; COVID-19; mathematical modelling; contact matrices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/10/1084/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/10/1084/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:10:p:1084-:d:552626

Access Statistics for this article

Mathematics is currently edited by Ms. Emma He

More articles in Mathematics from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().