Evaluating the Efficiency of Off-Ball Screens in Elite Basketball Teams via Second-Order Markov Modelling

Nikolaos Stavropoulos, Alexandra Papadopoulou and Pavlos Kolias
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Nikolaos Stavropoulos: Laboratory of Evaluation of Human Biological Performance, School of Physical Education and Sport Science, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece
Alexandra Papadopoulou: Section of Statistics and Operational Research, Department of Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Pavlos Kolias: Section of Statistics and Operational Research, Department of Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 16, 1-13

Abstract: In basketball, the offensive movements on both strong and weak sides and tactical behavior play major roles in the effectiveness of a team’s offense. In the literature, studies are mostly focused on offensive actions, such as ball screens on the strong side. In the present paper, for the first time a second-order Markov model is defined to evaluate players’ interactions on the weak side, particularly for exploring the effectiveness of tactical structures and off-ball screens regarding the final outcome. The sample consisted of 1170 possessions of the FIBA Basketball Champions League 2018–2019. The variables of interest were the type of screen on the weak side, the finishing move, and the outcome of the shot. The model incorporates partial non-homogeneity according to the time of the execution (0–24?) and the quarter of playtime, and it is conditioned on the off-ball screen type. Regarding the overall performance, the results indicated that the outcome of each possession was influenced not only by the type of the executed shot, but also by the specific type of screen that took place earlier on the weak side of the offense. Thus, the proposed model could operate as an advisory tool for the coach’s strategic plans.

Keywords: basketball; Markov chain; second order; off-ball screens; performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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