An Automatic Algorithm to Date the Reference Cycle of the Spanish Economy

Maximo Camacho, María Dolores Gadea and Ana Gómez-Loscos
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María Dolores Gadea: Department of Applied Economics, University of Zaragoza, 50005 Zaragoza, Spain

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 18, 1-17

Abstract: This paper provides an accurate chronology of the Spanish reference business cycle adapting a multiple change-point model. In that approach, each combination of peaks and troughs dated in a set of economic indicators is assumed to be a realization of a mixture of bivariate Gaussian distributions, whose number of components is estimated from the data. The means of each of these components refer to the dates of the reference turning points. The transitions across the components of the mixture are governed by Markov chain that is restricted to force left-to-right transition dynamic. In the empirical application, seven recessions in the period from February 1970 to February 2020 are identified, which are in high concordance with the timing of the turning point dates established by the Spanish Business Cycle Dating Committee (SBCDC).

Keywords: business cycles; turning points; finite mixture models; Spain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Working Paper: An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy (2021)
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