Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters to Interpret Effects of National and Regional Feedback Interventions and Vaccination

Cristiano Maria Verrelli and Fabio Della Rossa
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Cristiano Maria Verrelli: Electronic Engineering Department, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy
Fabio Della Rossa: Department of Electronic, Information and Biomedical Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 19, 1-12

Abstract: The COVID-19 epidemic has recently led in Italy to the implementation of different external strategies in order to limit the spread of the disease in response to its transmission rate: strict national lockdown rules, followed first by a weakening of the social distancing and contact reduction feedback interventions and finally the implementation of coordinated intermittent regional actions, up to the application, in this last context, of an age-stratified vaccine prioritization strategy. This paper originally aims at identifying, starting from the available age-structured real data at the national level during the specific aforementioned scenarios, external-scenario-dependent sets of virulence parameters for a two-age-structured COVID-19 epidemic compartmental model, in order to provide an interpretation of how each external scenario modifies the age-dependent patterns of social contacts and the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19 epidemic; model identification; parameter estimation; compartmental model; national lockdown; regional action; vaccine prioritization strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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