SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission

Hennie Husniah, Ruhanda Ruhanda, Asep K. Supriatna and Md. H. A. Biswas
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Hennie Husniah: Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Langlangbuana, Bandung 40261, Indonesia
Ruhanda Ruhanda: Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Langlangbuana, Bandung 40261, Indonesia
Asep K. Supriatna: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia
Md. H. A. Biswas: Mathematics Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna 9208, Bangladesh

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 22, 1-16

Abstract: In some diseases, due to the restrictive availability of vaccines on the market (e.g., during the early emergence of a new disease that may cause a pandemic such as COVID-19), the use of plasma transfusion is among the available options for handling such a disease. In this study, we developed an SEIR mathematical model of disease transmission dynamics, considering the use of convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT). In this model, we assumed that the effect of CPT increases patient survival or, equivalently, leads to a reduction in the length of stay during an infectious period. We attempted to answer the question of what the effects are of different rates of CPT applications in decreasing the number of infectives at the population level. Herein, we analyzed the model using standard procedures in mathematical epidemiology, i.e., finding the trivial and non-trivial equilibrium points of the system including their stability and their relation to basic and effective reproduction numbers. We showed that, in general, the effects of the application of CPT resulted in a lower peak of infection cases and other epidemiological measures. As a consequence, in the presence of CPT, lowering the height of an infective peak can be regarded as an increase in the number of remaining healthy individuals; thus, the use of CPT may decrease the burden of COVID-19 transmission.

Keywords: SEIR ODE model; COVID-19 transmission; convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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