Mathematical Modeling of the Phytoplankton Populations Geographic Dynamics for Possible Scenarios of Changes in the Azov Sea Hydrological Regime

Alexander Sukhinov, Yulia Belova, Alexander Chistyakov, Alexey Beskopylny and Besarion Meskhi
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Alexander Sukhinov: Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Faculty of IT-Systems and Technology, Don State Technical University, 344000 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Yulia Belova: Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Faculty of IT-Systems and Technology, Don State Technical University, 344000 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Alexander Chistyakov: Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Faculty of IT-Systems and Technology, Don State Technical University, 344000 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Alexey Beskopylny: Department of Transport Systems, Faculty of Roads and Transport Systems, Don State Technical University, 344000 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Besarion Meskhi: Department of Life Safety and Environmental Protection, Faculty of Life Safety and Environmental Engineering, Don State Technical University, 344000 Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 23, 1-16

Abstract: Increased influence of abiotic and anthropogenic factors on the ecological state of coastal systems leads to uncontrollable changes in the overall ecosystem. This paper considers the crucial problem of studying the effect of an increase in the water’s salinity in the Azov Sea and the Taganrog Bay on hydrobiological processes. The main aim of the research is the diagnostic and predictive modeling of the geographic dynamics of the general phytoplankton populations. A mathematical model that describes the dynamics of three types of phytoplankton is proposed, considering the influence of salinity and nutrients on algae development. Discretization is carried out based on a linear combination of Upwind Leapfrog difference schemes and a central difference scheme, which makes it possible to increase the accuracy of solving the biological kinetics problem at large values of the grid Péclet number (Pe h > 2). A software package has been developed that implements interrelated models of hydrodynamics and biogeochemical cycles. A modified alternating-triangular method was used to solve large-dimensional systems of linear algebraic equations (SLAE). Based on the scenario approach, several numerical experiments were carried out to simulate the dynamics of the main species of phytoplankton populations at different levels of water salinity in coastal systems. It is shown that with an increase in the salinity of waters, the habitats of phytoplankton populations shift, and marine species invasively replace freshwater species of algae.

Keywords: mathematical model; hydrological regime; salinity; Upwind Leapfrog difference scheme; phytoplankton dynamics; numerical experiments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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