Investigation of the Stochastic Modeling of COVID-19 with Environmental Noise from the Analytical and Numerical Point of View

Shah Hussain, Elissa Nadia Madi, Hasib Khan, Sina Etemad, Shahram Rezapour, Thanin Sitthiwirattham and Nichaphat Patanarapeelert
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Shah Hussain: Faculty of Informatics and Computing, Besut Campus, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UniSZA), Besut 22200, Terengganu, Malaysia
Elissa Nadia Madi: Faculty of Informatics and Computing, Besut Campus, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UniSZA), Besut 22200, Terengganu, Malaysia
Hasib Khan: Department of Mathematics, Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Univeresity, Dir Upper, Sheringal 18050, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Sina Etemad: Department of Mathematics, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz 53751-71379, Iran
Shahram Rezapour: Department of Mathematics, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz 53751-71379, Iran
Thanin Sitthiwirattham: Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, Suan Dusit University, Bangkok 10300, Thailand
Nichaphat Patanarapeelert: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Science, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok 10800, Thailand

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 23, 1-20

Abstract: In this article, we propose a novel mathematical model for the spread of COVID-19 involving environmental white noise. The new stochastic model was studied for the existence and persistence of the disease, as well as the extinction of the disease. We noticed that the existence and extinction of the disease are dependent on R 0 (the reproduction number). Then, a numerical scheme was developed for the computational analysis of the model; with the existing values of the parameters in the literature, we obtained the related simulations, which gave us more realistic numerical data for the future prediction. The mentioned stochastic model was analyzed for different values of σ 1 , σ 2 and β 1 , β 2 , and both the stochastic and the deterministic models were compared for the future prediction of the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords: stochastic model; numerical scheme; COVID-19; existence; persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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