Models for COVID-19 Daily Confirmed Cases in Different Countries

Hamdy M. Ahmed, Reda A. Elbarkouky, Othman A. M. Omar and Maria Alessandra Ragusa
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Hamdy M. Ahmed: Higher Institute of Engineering, El-Shorouk Academy, El-Shorouk City, Cairo 11837, Egypt
Reda A. Elbarkouky: Physics and Engineering Mathematics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11517, Egypt
Othman A. M. Omar: Physics and Engineering Mathematics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11517, Egypt
Maria Alessandra Ragusa: Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Università di Catania, Viale Andrea Doria 6, 95125 Catania, Italy

Mathematics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 6, 1-13

Abstract: In this paper, daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different countries are modelled using different mathematical regression models. The curve fitting is used as a prediction tool for modeling both past and upcoming coronavirus waves. According to virus spreading and average annual temperatures, countries under study are classified into three main categories. First category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about two-year seasons (about 180 days) to complete a viral cycle. Second category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about one-year season (about 90 days) to complete the first viral cycle with higher virus spreading rate. These countries take stopping periods with low virus spreading rate. Third category, countries that take the highest virus spreading rate and the viral cycle complete without stopping periods. Finally, predictions of different upcoming scenarios are made and compared with actual current smoothed daily confirmed cases in these countries.

Keywords: COVID-19; Fourier fitting; curve fitting; optimization algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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