Forecasting the Scientific Production Volumes of G7 and BRICS Countries in a Comparative Analysis

Tindaro Cicero ()
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Tindaro Cicero: Department of Engineering and Science, Universitas Mercatorum, 00186 Rome, Italy

Publications, 2025, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: This study applies ARIMA models to forecast scientific production trends among G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries using Scopus data from 1996 to 2023. The analysis shows that G7 countries maintain steady growth driven by established research infrastructures, while BRICS nations, particularly China, display accelerated growth due to substantial investments in R&D. The forecasts indicate that China could reach over 2,000,000 indexed scientific publications annually by 2030, potentially reshaping the global research landscape. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and research institutions, highlighting the shifting dynamics of global scientific leadership and emphasizing the importance of sustained investment in research to remain competitive.

Keywords: scientific production; forecasting; ARIMA models; bibliometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A2 D83 L82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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