Seven Decades of Surface Temperature Changes in Central European Lakes: What Is Next?

Mariusz Ptak (), Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen and Mariusz Sojka ()
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Mariusz Ptak: Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland
Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen: Atmospheric Pollution and Climate Research Unit, School of Energy and Environment, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand
Mariusz Sojka: Department of Land Improvement, Environmental Development and Spatial Management, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Piątkowska 94E, 60-649 Poznań, Poland

Resources, 2024, vol. 13, issue 11, 1-16

Abstract: Lakes are vital components of the hydrosphere, holding both environmental and economic significance. In recent times, they have undergone transformations in one of their key characteristics—water temperature. Assessing the scale and pace of these changes depends on the length and accuracy of the available data. This study focuses on the two lakes in Poland (Białe Augustowskie and Studzieniczne) with the longest continuous water temperature records, ranging from 1954 to 2023. The results reveal a relatively stable thermal regime until the late 1980s (with changes that were statistically insignificant) and a significant shift over the past three decades, during which the water temperature increased at a rate of 0.5 °C per decade. Importantly, simulations indicate further warming of the water by the end of the 21st century. Depending on the chosen climate change scenario, the warming of both lakes is expected to continue, with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585) scenario projecting a steady increase of 0.5 °C per decade. Given the fundamental importance of water temperature in determining factors such as water quality, these future changes present a significant challenge for water management authorities in terms of maintaining and managing these ecosystems.

Keywords: water temperature; trends; climate changes; inland waters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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