The Influence of the Rainfall Extremes and Land Cover Changes on the Major Flood Events at Bekasi, West Jawa, and Its Surrounding Regions

Fanny Meliani, Reni Sulistyowati (), Elenora Gita Alamanda Sapan, Lena Sumargana, Sopia Lestari, Jaka Suryanta, Aninda Wisaksanti Rudiastuti, Ilvi Fauziyah Cahyaningtiyas, Teguh Arif Pianto, Harun Idham Akbar, Yulianingsani, Winarno, Hari Priyadi, Darmawan Listya Cahya, Bambang Winarno and Bayu Sutejo
Additional contact information
Fanny Meliani: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Reni Sulistyowati: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Elenora Gita Alamanda Sapan: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Lena Sumargana: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Sopia Lestari: Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Jaka Suryanta: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Aninda Wisaksanti Rudiastuti: Research Center for Conservation of Marine and Inland Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency of Indonesia (BRIN), Bogor 16911, Indonesia
Ilvi Fauziyah Cahyaningtiyas: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Teguh Arif Pianto: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Harun Idham Akbar: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Yulianingsani: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Winarno: Directorate for Laboratory Management, Research Facilities, and Science and Technology Park, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Jakarta 10340, Indonesia
Hari Priyadi: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Darmawan Listya Cahya: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Bambang Winarno: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia
Bayu Sutejo: Research Center for Limnology and Water Resources, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), South Tangerang 15314, Indonesia

Resources, 2025, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-35

Abstract: The Bekasi River Basin is highly vulnerable to severe and recurrent flooding, as evidenced by significant infrastructure and environmental damage during major events. This study investigates the catastrophic floods of 2016, 2020, 2022, and 2025 by implementing the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to simulate key hydrological processes. After validation using historical water level data, the model performed effectively, achieving the highest coefficient of determination ( R 2 = 0.75) and lowest root mean square error (RMSE = 0.66) at Cileungsi Station. In contrast, the lowest R 2 = 0.02, and the highest RMSE = 3.74 at Pondok Gede Permai (PGP) Station. The results reveal a concerning trend of worsening 5-year flood events, with the 2025 flood reaching a peak inundation depth exceeding 3 m and affecting an area of 2.97 km 2 , caused by a rainfall threshold of more than 180 mm/day. Furthermore, the model shows a rapid hydrological response, with a time lag of approximately 7 h or less between peak rainfall and flood onset across three monitoring stations. Analysis indicates these severe floods were primarily triggered by heavy rainfall combined with significant land cover changes. The findings provide valuable insights for flood prediction and mitigation strategies in this vulnerable region.

Keywords: flood disaster; RRI model; Bekasi River Basin; extreme rainfall; gridded rainfall-runoff model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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