Strategic Approaches to Define the Production Rate in Conceptual Projects of Critical Raw Materials

Lucas Zucchi Silva and Anna Luiza Marques Ayres da Silva ()
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Lucas Zucchi Silva: Mining and Petroleum Engineering Department, University of São Paulo, Av. Prof. Mello Moraes, 2373—Cidade Universitária—Butantã CEP, São Paulo 05508-030, Brazil
Anna Luiza Marques Ayres da Silva: Mining and Petroleum Engineering Department, University of São Paulo, Av. Prof. Mello Moraes, 2373—Cidade Universitária—Butantã CEP, São Paulo 05508-030, Brazil

Resources, 2025, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-26

Abstract: Mining projects are intricate, requiring significant time and investment for feasibility studies, despite a low likelihood of reaching execution. Accurate project factors can optimize costs across the study, execution, and operation phases. This work proposes a strategic approach to define the production rate in conceptual projects of critical raw materials, based on well-established formulae from Taylor, Long, and Singer, focusing on copper, zinc, and lead. Copper and zinc are crucial for renewable energy systems and low-carbon technologies, while lead supports energy storage applications. A dataset containing mine production and mineral resources from several mine projects, gathered from a specialized global company, was used to create a production rate equation and then compared using an adherence indicator to validate the formulae. The best adherence indicator from earlier studies was 59%. Copper projects did not show good adherence to the new formulae. Zinc and lead projects showed very good results, generating three formulae with good adherence numbers (above 70%), and they can be taken as a reference to calculate the production rate of new open-pit and underground mining projects. These findings offer a reliable strategic approach for estimating production rates in early-stage zinc and lead projects, enhancing the efficiency of the conceptual study phase in mining.

Keywords: open-pit mining; underground mining; conceptual mining projects; mineral resources; production rate; critical raw materials (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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