Is Everything Lost? Recreating the Surface Water Temperature of Unmonitored Lakes in Poland

Mariusz Ptak (), Mariusz Sojka, Katarzyna Szyga-Pluta, Muhammad Yousuf Jat Baloch and Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen ()
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Mariusz Ptak: Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland
Mariusz Sojka: Department of Land Improvement, Environmental Development and Spatial Management, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Piątkowska 94E, 60-649 Poznań, Poland
Katarzyna Szyga-Pluta: Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Krygowskiego 10, 61-680 Poznań, Poland
Muhammad Yousuf Jat Baloch: School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, China
Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen: School of Energy and Environment, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand

Resources, 2025, vol. 14, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: One of the fundamental features of lakes is water temperature, which determines the functioning of lake ecosystems. However, the overall range of information related to the monitoring of this parameter is quite limited, both in terms of the number of lakes and the duration of measurements. This study addresses this gap by reconstructing the lake surface water temperature (LSWT) of six lakes in Poland from 1994 to 2023, where direct measurements were discontinued. The reconstruction is based on the Air2Water model, which establishes a statistical relationship between LSWT and air temperature. Model validation using historical observations demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency exceeding 0.92 and root mean squared error ranging from 0.97 °C to 2.13 °C across the lakes. A trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator indicated a statistically significant warming trend in all lakes, with an average increase of 0.35 °C per decade. Monthly trends were most pronounced in June, September, and November, exceeding 0.50 °C per decade in some cases. The direction, pace, and scale of these changes are crucial for managing individual lakes, both from an ecological and economic perspective.

Keywords: lakes; inland waters; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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