Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States

Tomer Fishman, Rupert J. Myers, Orlando Rios and T.E. Graedel
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Tomer Fishman: Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect St., New Haven, CT 06511, USA
Rupert J. Myers: Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect St., New Haven, CT 06511, USA
Orlando Rios: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
T.E. Graedel: Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect St., New Haven, CT 06511, USA

Resources, 2018, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: We explore the long-term demand and supply potentials of rare earth elements in alternative energy vehicles (AEVs) in the United States until 2050. Using a stock-flow model, we compare a baseline scenario with scenarios that incorporate an exemplary technological innovation: a novel aluminum–cerium–magnesium alloy. We find that the introduction of the novel alloy demonstrates that even low penetration rates can exceed domestic cerium production capacity, illustrating possible consequences of technological innovations to material supply and demand. End-of-life vehicles can, however, overtake domestic mining as a source of materials, calling for proper technologies and policies to utilize this emerging source. The long-term importing of critical materials in manufactured and semi-manufactured products shifts the location of material stocks and hence future secondary supply of high-value materials, culminating in a double benefit to the importing country. This modeling approach is adaptable to the study of varied scenarios and materials, linking technologies with supply and demand dynamics in order to understand their potential economic and environmental consequences.

Keywords: rare earth elements; critical materials; material flow analysis; electric and hybrid vehicles; secondary material supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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