Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Distribution of Major Non-Timber Forest Plants in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Vishwas Chitale, Ramesh Silwal and Mir Matin
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Vishwas Chitale: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Kathmandu 44700, Nepal
Ramesh Silwal: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Kathmandu 44700, Nepal
Mir Matin: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Kathmandu 44700, Nepal

Resources, 2018, vol. 7, issue 4, 1-12

Abstract: For many decades, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) have been an important livelihood commodity in Nepal as a traditional source of food, fiber, and medicines. However, the importance of NTFPs have been recognized only recently. NTFPs form more than 5% of Nepal’s national gross domestic product and are facing threat due to anthropogenic drivers and changing climate. Understanding of the current distribution and future dynamics of NTFPs is essential for effective conservation planning and management. In the maiden attempt, we used the Maxent model to understand the current and predict the future distribution by 2050 of 10 major NTFPs in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal. The prediction accuracy of the models calculated based on the area under curve was high (>90%) and the prediction by 2050 highlights potential increase in distribution range of seven NTFPs and potential decrease in that of three NTFPs in the study area. The results from our study could play an important role in planning and management of these NTFPs considering their high economic and ecological significance and sensitivity to predicted climate change.

Keywords: medicinal plants; forest degradation; Maxent; Gandaki Basin; Nepal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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