Devising Mineral Resource Supply Pathways to a Low-Carbon Electricity Generation by 2100

Antoine Boubault and Nadia Maïzi
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Antoine Boubault: Mines ParisTech, Center for Applied Mathematics, PSL Research University, Rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, 06904 Sophia Antipolis Cedex, France
Nadia Maïzi: Mines ParisTech, Center for Applied Mathematics, PSL Research University, Rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, 06904 Sophia Antipolis Cedex, France

Resources, 2019, vol. 8, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Achieving a “carbon neutral” world by 2100 or earlier in a context of economic growth implies a drastic and profound transformation of the way energy is supplied and consumed in our societies. In this paper, we use life-cycle inventories of electricity-generating technologies and an integrated assessment model (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) to project the global raw material requirements in two scenarios: a second shared socioeconomic pathway baseline, and a 2 °C scenario by 2100. Material usage reported in the life-cycle inventories is distributed into three phases, namely construction, operation, and decommissioning. Material supply dynamics and the impact of the 2 °C warming limit are quantified for three raw fossil fuels and forty-eight metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources. Depending on the time horizon, graphite, sand, sulfur, borates, aluminum, chromium, nickel, silver, gold, rare earth elements or their substitutes could face a sharp increase in usage as a result of a massive installation of low-carbon technologies. Ignoring nonfuel resource availability and value in deep decarbonation, circular economy, or decoupling scenarios can potentially generate misleading, contradictory, or unachievable climate policies.

Keywords: industrial ecology; integrated assessment models; life-cycle inventories; mineral resources; decoupling; prospective scenario analysis; TIAM-FR; socioeconomic metabolism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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