Pricing Kernels and Risk Premia implied in Bitcoin Options

Julian Winkel () and Wolfgang Karl Härdle
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Julian Winkel: International Research Training Group 1792, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10117 Berlin, Germany
Wolfgang Karl Härdle: BRC Blockchain Research Center, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10117 Berlin, Germany

Risks, 2023, vol. 11, issue 5, 1-18

Abstract: Bitcoin Pricing Kernels (PKs) are estimated using a novel data set from Deribit, the leading Bitcoin options exchange. The PKs, as the ratio between risk-neutral and physical density, dynamically reflect the change in investor preferences. Thus, the PKs improve the understanding of investor expectations and risk premiums in a new asset class. Bootstrap-based confidence bands are estimated in order to validate the results. Investors are heterogeneous in their risk profiles and preferences with respect to volatility and investment horizon. The empirical PKs turn out to be U-shaped for short-dated instruments and W-shaped for long-dated instruments. We find that investors are willing to pay a substantial risk premium to insure themselves against short-term price movements. The risk premium is smaller for longer-dated instruments and their traders are risk averse. The shape of the empirical PKs reveals the existence of a time-varying risk premium. The similarity between the shape of empirical PKs for Bitcoin and other markets that represent aggregate wealth shows that Bitcoin is becoming an established asset class.

Keywords: Bitcoin; Deribit; pricing kernel; risk aversion; speculation; hedging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 K2 M2 M4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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