Cyber, Geopolitical, and Financial Risks in Rare Earth Markets: Drivers of Market Volatility

Emilia Calefariu Giol, Oana Panazan and Catalin Gheorghe ()
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Emilia Calefariu Giol: Department of Engineering and Industrial Management, Transilvania University of Brasov, Eroilor Street 29, 500036 Brasov, Romania
Oana Panazan: Department of Engineering and Industrial Management, Transilvania University of Brasov, Eroilor Street 29, 500036 Brasov, Romania
Catalin Gheorghe: Department of Engineering and Industrial Management, Transilvania University of Brasov, Eroilor Street 29, 500036 Brasov, Romania

Risks, 2025, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-27

Abstract: This study examines the integrated impacts of cyberattacks, geopolitical, and financial market volatility on rare earth markets during the 2014–2024 period, using Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression and wavelet analysis. By bridging critical gaps in the literature, this research provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the compounded effects of emerging risks on market dynamics. The analysis includes key market indices (SOLLIT, PICK, SPGSIN, GSPTXGM, MVREMXTR, and XME), alongside green energy prices, to capture cross-market dependencies. The findings reveal that financial volatility exerts the most persistent long-term influence, while geopolitical events, such as the US-China trade tensions and the Ukraine conflict, trigger significant market disruptions. Cyberattacks, although episodic, exacerbate short-term volatility, especially during global crises. Rising green energy prices further amplify vulnerabilities in supply chains, underscoring the interconnectedness of rare earth markets and the sustainable energy transition. This research provides actionable insights for integrated risk management strategies, emphasizing supply chain diversification, enhanced cybersecurity, and international cooperation to ensure market stability and resilience in the energy transition.

Keywords: rare elements; risk; cyberattack; GPR; VIX; TVP-VAR; wavelet; price; return (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 K2 M2 M4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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