Linking Futures and Options Pricing in the Natural Gas Market

Francesco Rotondi ()
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Francesco Rotondi: Department of Finance, Bocconi University, 20136 Milano, Italy

Risks, 2025, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-28

Abstract: A robust model for natural gas prices should simultaneously capture the observed prices of both futures and options. While incorporating a seasonal factor in the convenience yield of the spot price effectively replicates forward curves, it proves insufficient for accurately modelling the options price surface. The latter is more sensitive to the volatility structure of the spot price process, which has a limited impact on futures pricing. In this paper, we analyse European natural gas spot, futures, and options prices throughout 2024 and propose a no-arbitrage model that integrates both a seasonal stochastic convenience yield and a local volatility factor. This framework enables a simultaneous and accurate fit of both forward curves and options prices.

Keywords: natural gas; futures prices; options prices; stochastic convenience yield; seasonality; local volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 K2 M2 M4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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