Reverse Mortgages and Pension Sustainability: An Agent-Based and Actuarial Approach

Francesco Rania ()
Additional contact information
Francesco Rania: Department of Law, Economics and Sociology, Magna Græcia University of Catanzaro, Viale Europa, Loc. Germaneto, 88100 Catancaro, Italy

Risks, 2025, vol. 13, issue 8, 1-26

Abstract: Population aging poses significant challenges to the sustainability of pension systems. This study presents an integrated methodological approach that uniquely combines actuarial life-cycle modeling with agent-based simulation to assess the potential of Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a dual lever for enhancing retiree welfare and supporting pension system resilience under demographic and financial uncertainty. We explore Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a potential financial instrument to support retirees while alleviating pressure on public pensions. Unlike prior research that treats individual decisions or policy outcomes in isolation, our hybrid model explicitly captures feedback loops between household-level behavior and system-wide financial stability. To test our hypothesis that RMLs can improve individual consumption outcomes and bolster systemic solvency, we develop a hybrid model combining actuarial techniques and agent-based simulations, incorporating stochastic housing prices, longevity risk, regulatory capital requirements, and demographic shifts. This dual-framework enables a structured investigation of how micro-level financial decisions propagate through market dynamics, influencing solvency, pricing, and adoption trends. Our central hypothesis is that reverse mortgages, when actuarially calibrated and macroprudentially regulated, enhance individual financial well-being while preserving long-run solvency at the system level. Simulation results indicate that RMLs can improve consumption smoothing, raise expected utility for retirees, and contribute to long-term fiscal sustainability. Moreover, we introduce a dynamic regulatory mechanism that adjusts capital buffers based on evolving market and demographic conditions, enhancing system resilience. Our simulation design supports multi-scenario testing of financial robustness and policy outcomes, providing a transparent tool for stress-testing RML adoption at scale. These findings suggest that, when well-regulated, RMLs can serve as a viable supplement to traditional retirement financing. Rather than offering prescriptive guidance, this framework provides insights to policymakers, financial institutions, and regulators seeking to integrate RMLs into broader pension strategies.

Keywords: reverse mortgage; agent-based model; pension reform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 K2 M2 M4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/8/147/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/8/147/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2025:i:8:p:147-:d:1717187

Access Statistics for this article

Risks is currently edited by Mr. Claude Zhang

More articles in Risks from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().