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On the Validation of Claims with Excess Zeros in Liability Insurance: A Comparative Study

Marjan Qazvini ()
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Marjan Qazvini: Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University Malaysia, 62200 Putrajaya, Wilayah Persekutuan Putrajaya, Malaysia

Risks, 2019, vol. 7, issue 3, 1-17

Abstract: In this study, we consider the problem of zero claims in a liability insurance portfolio and compare the predictability of three models. We use French motor third party liability (MTPL) insurance data, which has been used for a pricing game, and show that how the type of coverage and policyholders’ willingness to subscribe to insurance pricing, based on telematics data, affects their driving behaviour and hence their claims. Using our validation set, we then predict the number of zero claims. Our results show that although a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model performs better than a Poisson regression, it can even be outperformed by logistic regression.

Keywords: validation; generalised linear modelling; zero-inflated poisson model; telematics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 M2 M4 K2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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