Analysis of the Flow of Offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile

Pablo Cadena-Urzúa, Javier Guardiola, Adina Iftimi and Francisco Montes ()
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Pablo Cadena-Urzúa: Doctoral Programme in Law, Political Science and Criminology, Universitat de Valencia, 46022 Valencia, Spain
Javier Guardiola: Department of Criminal Law, Universitat de Valencia, 46022 Valencia, Spain
Adina Iftimi: Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Universitat de Valencia, 46100 Burjassot, Spain
Francisco Montes: Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Universitat de Valencia, 46100 Burjassot, Spain

Social Sciences, 2024, vol. 13, issue 7, 1-11

Abstract: This study, based on data from 2015 to 2019 on the movement of offenders to the Metropolitan Region of Chile, uses Poisson and Negative Binomial models to analyze the flow of offenders from other Chilean regions. It confirms that factors such as gender, educational level, location of crime, and type of crime significantly motivate displacement. The profile of the typical offender is an educated man who commits crimes against property on public roads, coming mainly from neighboring and populated regions. These findings have implications for crime prevention, suggesting that strategies to prevent crime should take this into account. Future research at the commune level is proposed for a more detailed understanding of offender displacement patterns and to inform local crime-prevention strategies.

Keywords: criminal mobility; journey to crime; Poisson regression; Negative Binomial regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A B N P Y80 Z00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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