A Support Vector Machine Based Approach for Predicting the Risk of Freshwater Disease Emergence in England

Hossein Hassani, Emmanuel S. Silva, Marine Combe, Demetra Andreou, Mansi Ghodsi, Mohammad Reza Yeganegi and Rodolphe E. Gozlan
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Hossein Hassani: Research Institute of Energy Management and Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417466191, Iran
Emmanuel S. Silva: Fashion Business School, London College of Fashion, University of the Arts London, London WC1V 7EY, UK
Marine Combe: ISEM UMR226, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, 34090 Montpellier, France
Demetra Andreou: Department of Environmental and Life Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Bournemouth University, Talbot Campus, Poole BH12 5BB, UK
Mansi Ghodsi: Research Institute of Energy Management and Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417466191, Iran
Mohammad Reza Yeganegi: Department of Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran 1955847781, Iran
Rodolphe E. Gozlan: ISEM UMR226, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, 34090 Montpellier, France

Stats, 2019, vol. 2, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Disease emergence, in the last decades, has had increasingly disproportionate impacts on aquatic freshwater biodiversity. Here, we developed a new model based on Support Vector Machines (SVM) for predicting the risk of freshwater fish disease emergence in England. Following a rigorous training process and simulations, the proposed SVM model was validated and reported high accuracy rates for predicting the risk of freshwater fish disease emergence in England. Our findings suggest that the disease monitoring strategy employed in England could be successful at preventing disease emergence in certain parts of England, as areas in which there were high fish introductions were not correlated with high disease emergence (which was to be expected from the literature). We further tested our model’s predictions with actual disease emergence data using Chi-Square tests and test of Mutual Information. The results identified areas that require further attention and resource allocation to curb future freshwater disease emergence successfully.

Keywords: biodiversity; conservation; management; policies; non native introduction; forecasting; support vector machines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C10 C11 C14 C15 C16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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