Recovering Yield Curves from Dynamic Term Structure Models with Time-Varying Factors

Hiroyuki Kawakatsu
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Hiroyuki Kawakatsu: Business School, Dublin City University, Dublin 9, Ireland

Stats, 2020, vol. 3, issue 3, 1-46

Abstract: A dynamic version of the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson term structure model with time-varying factors is considered for predicting out-of-sample maturity yields. Simple linear interpolation cannot be applied to recover yields at the very short- and long- end of the term structure where data are often missing. This motivates the use of dynamic parametric term structure models that exploit both time series and cross-sectional variation in yield data to predict missing data at the extreme ends of the term structure. Although the dynamic Nelson–Siegel–Svensson model is weakly identified when the two decay factors become close to each other, their predictions may be more accurate than those from more restricted models depending on data and maturity.

Keywords: yield curve; term structure; nonlinear filtering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C10 C11 C14 C15 C16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jstats:v:3:y:2020:i:3:p:20-329:d:402609

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