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Decisions in Risk and Reliability: An Explanatory Perspective

Antonio Pievatolo, Fabrizio Ruggeri, Refik Soyer and Simon Wilson
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Antonio Pievatolo: CNR IMATI, Via Alfonso Corti 12, 20133 Milano, Italy
Fabrizio Ruggeri: CNR IMATI, Via Alfonso Corti 12, 20133 Milano, Italy
Refik Soyer: Department of Decision Sciences, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA
Simon Wilson: School of Computer Science & Statistics, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

Stats, 2021, vol. 4, issue 2, 1-23

Abstract: The paper discusses issues that surround decisions in risk and reliability, with a major emphasis on quantitative methods. We start with a brief history of quantitative methods in risk and reliability from the 17th century onwards. Then, we look at the principal concepts and methods in decision theory. Finally, we give several examples of their application to a wide variety of risk and reliability problems: software testing, preventive maintenance, portfolio selection, adversarial testing, and the defend-attack problem. These illustrate how the general framework of game and decision theory plays a relevant part in risk and reliability.

Keywords: utility; sensitivity analysis; decision trees; influence diagrams; adversarial risk analysis; optimal replacement; software testing; preventive maintenance; portfolio selection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C10 C11 C14 C15 C16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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