A General Description of Growth Trends

Moshe Elitzur
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Moshe Elitzur: Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA

Stats, 2022, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Time series that display periodicity can be described with a Fourier expansion. In a similar vein, a recently developed formalism enables the description of growth patterns with the optimal number of parameters. The method has been applied to the growth of national GDP, population and the COVID-19 pandemic; in all cases, the deviations of long-term growth patterns from purely exponential required no more than two additional parameters, mostly only one. Here, I utilize the new framework to develop a unified formulation for all functions that describe growth deceleration, wherein the growth rate decreases with time. The result offers the prospects for a new general tool for trend removal in time-series analysis.

Keywords: exponential growth; logistic growth; growth hindering; time series analysis; trend removal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C10 C11 C14 C15 C16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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