Social Response and Measles Dynamics

Atinuke O. Adebanji, Franz Aschl, Ednah Chepkemoi Chumo, Emmanuel Odame Owiredu, Johannes Müller () and Tukae Mbegalo
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Atinuke O. Adebanji: Department for Statistics & Actuarial Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi AK-448-4924, Ghana
Franz Aschl: School for Computation, Information and Technology, TU München (TUM), 80333 Munich, Germany
Ednah Chepkemoi Chumo: School of Sciences & Aerospace Studies, Department of Mathematics, Physics & Computing, Moi University, Eldoret 30107, Kenya
Emmanuel Odame Owiredu: Department for Statistics & Actuarial Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi AK-448-4924, Ghana
Johannes Müller: School for Computation, Information and Technology, TU München (TUM), 80333 Munich, Germany
Tukae Mbegalo: Department of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, Mzumbe University, Morogoro P.O. Box 1, Tanzania

Stats, 2023, vol. 6, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: Measles remains one of the leading causes of death among young children globally, even though a safe and cost-effective vaccine is available. Vaccine hesitancy and social response to vaccination continue to undermine efforts to eradicate measles. In this study, we consider data about measles vaccination and measles prevalence in Germany for the years 2008–2012 in 345 districts. In the first part of the paper, we show that the probability of a local outbreak does not significantly depend on the vaccination coverage, but—if an outbreak does take place—the scale of the outbreak depends significantly on the vaccination coverage. Additionally, we show that the willingness to be vaccinated is significantly increased by local outbreaks, with a delay of about one year. In the second part of the paper, we consider a deterministic delay model to investigate the consequences of the statistical findings on the dynamics of the infection. Here, we find that the delay might induce oscillations if the vaccination coverage is rather low and the social response to an outbreak is sufficiently strong. The relevance of our findings is discussed at the end of the paper.

Keywords: measles vaccination; measles outbreaks; social response; zero-inflated negative binomial regression; delay differential equation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C10 C11 C14 C15 C16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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